We always caution clients about the dangers of being an oracle. While making bold predictions is a surefire way to get media visibility – as Henry Blodget learned when he predicted in December 1998 Amazon shares would hit $400 within a year – they can forever haunt you if you turn out to be egregiously wrong. Tom Watson, former chairman of IBM, serves as a classic case in point. Despite his many accomplishments, Mr. Watson will always be best remembered for his suggestion that “there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
Another real doozy of a prediction was made by an unidentified New Yorker who was quoted by reporter Mark Calvey in a November 1996 San Francisco Business Times story saying that “the Internet is a hot fad that will be over in a year.” What was that guy thinking?! I’ll bet he feels pretty stupid now…
Okay, so that comment doesn’t appear to be one of my proudest moments. But for the record, I strongly maintain that I was misquoted.
As I recall my dinner conversation with Mark, I said that the excitement about dot-com companies was a bunch of hype because Internet technology at the time wasn’t sufficiently user friendly and that most dot-com entrepreneurs didn’t understand or appreciate the importance of good and reliable customer service. (I regard customer service as the best barometer of a company’s viability). In 1996, consumers didn’t have high-speed connections and if you ordered a product or service over the Internet chances were better than even that you never received it because the order never went through. I might have been wrong about the duration of the hype, but I think I deserve some credit for being among the first to predict that many of the era’s dot-com companies would eventually implode.
I consider Mark as being one of the most honest and decent reporters in journalism; after all, he could have legitimately quoted me as I never insisted beforehand (as I do when I’m accompanying a client) that our dinner conversation be treated as off-the-record. I long wondered if Mark even remembered my infamous quote, so this past summer I gave him a call and left a message on his voicemail. My worst fears were quickly realized when he called me back, as our conversation went something like this:
ME: Hey, Mark. Are you in New York? Your number showed up with a 212 area code.
MARK: No, I’m in San Francisco. I probably show up with a 212 area code because our phone lines are over the Internet. You know the Internet now has that capability, don’t you?
Yeah, he remembered.
ME: About that quote, you know that isn’t exactly what I said.
MARK: No, I’m pretty sure I quoted you accurately.
We agreed to forever disagree.
I’m coming clean on my infamous quote now because I figure it’s only a matter of time before Mark discovers that I’ve launched this blog. I can almost hear him snickering already.
Okay, Mark. Give me your best shot.
6 of 9
- Googling Weak Journalism
- The Irony of the New York Minute
- Out of the City and Into the Woods
- Seeking a Cure for The San Francisco Treat
- Top 10 Ways to Help Hotels Go Greener
- Clearing the San Francisco Air (Part One)
- Clearing the San Francisco Air (Part Two)
- If You Are Going to San Francisco
- A Demonstration We Can Do Without
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